This was orginally going to be a five part series on my Oscar predictions but a lack of time and some interferences from life have forced me to cut it down to four parts. It's not really a big deal as one of the last two was going to go over the categories in which I'm just taking shots in the dark. So let's tackle those before moving on to the big categories.
Short Film, Live Action and Animated
I haven't caught even one of these so I'm guessing (A) Torzija for live action and Boundin' for animated. In the last five years I have seen exactly one of the shorts prior to the Oscars. Somebody really needs to come up with a method for getting these to wider audiences.
Documentary Short Subject
Again, I haven't seen a single one. So let's say Chernobyl Heart. That sounds like a good name for an award.
Documentary Feature
The common rule, Bowling for Columbine excepted, is that the popular documentary never wins. So we'll throw out Capturing the Friedmans right away. I'm betting on The Fog of War to win because it is probably the next well known documentary of the year and because its subject matter will probably come across as very timely with the country at war. I say probably because I haven't seen it yet. I was supposed to catch it this afternoon but the theater mysteriously bumped it back a week.
Foreign Language Film
Frankly I can't even figure out how they pick the nominees, which makes picking the winner even more erratic. But I'll go with The Barbarian Invasions because it was a standout at Cannes and has played somwhat widely.
Okay, now we're done with the wild guessing. Let's get back to awards I actually have something to say about.
Music (Score)
I'm not really a big fan of Danny Elfman. He's nominated for Big Fish. I think my problem is that I always know it's an Elfman score after hearing a tiny piece of it. His style is distinctive and thus to my ear, somewhat repetitive. That's not to say I think he's a bad composer. I just don't think he tries enough new things.
Gabriel Yared was nominated for Cold Mountain. I have to say I can't even remember the score in this movie. On the plus side that means the score wasn't intrusive. On the down side that means it also wasn't memorable.
Thomas Newman does a great job with Finding Nemo. That said, I suspect it won't get the respect it deserves because it's attached to animation. It's a stupid reason to lose but I think it's the truth.
James Horner has been nominated nine times and won once before so the Academy clearly likes him. His score here is powerful without overpowering the acting, which is the film's real driving force. Still, I don't see his work in House of Sand and Fog being remembered enough to win.
Finally, Howard Shore for Return of the King. I'm particularly fond of Shore's work in other movies but he out does himself for Lord of the Rings. He has already won once before for Fellowship of the Ring. Over the course of the trilogy, his score has become more familiar and he has worked his themes to steadily better effect. By the time Return of the King came out, this music was becoming iconic. He'll win easily I believe.
Music (Song)
I hate this category. Most of the songs in it played no important part in the movie, generally appearing over the end credits. Worse, it's usually the sort of overblown ballad that tends to make my shorts itch. But this is the award that lets the Academy put some A-list musicians on the stage and pull in more viewers, so don't expect it to go away anytime soon. I'm not going to even bother discussing four of the nominees. For me, the list starts and ends on The Triplets of Belleville. It's a song so infectious that just watching the movie's trailer is enough to stick it in your head for days on end. Being unforgettable has to be a big factor in winning this award and none of the others can touch this song on that.
Best Director
Should I even bother discussing this? It seems a foregone conclusion that Peter Jackson wins it. Well, I've gotten this far, no sense quitting now.
Sofia Coppola is the first American woman nominated for this award and only the third all time. She's Hollywood royalty as the daughter of Francis Ford Coppola. A lot of people absolutely adore Lost in Translation. Despite all that, I think she'll come up short. She hasn't been around long enough. This is a case of the nomination is the award. I'm sure it's only a matter of time before she wins in this category though.
Peter Weir is very well respected and has been nominated before for The Truman Show, Witness and Dead Poets Society in directing and Green Card for writing. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World is the sort of story that thrives on the details and he makes all of that not only work but be interesting. It is a film with limited locations and yet it never feels confined. He has done a masterful job on this film. The catch that will trip him up though is that the film is emotionally distant. Despite being very well reviewed, it isn't a movie that seems to generate real passion. That will be what keeps him from winning.
Fernando Meirelles directed something truly special in City of God. It is the sort of movie I never tire of encouraging people to go see. His nomination was startling as the movie never did huge box office and didn't seem to be a priority for Miramax. But the quality of the film makes it impossible to forget, resulting in four nominations. Two things will keep him from winning though. One, it's a Brazilian film. Two, he was actually co-director on the film and there is some controversy on why Katia Lund was left out of this nomination.
Clint Eastwood is as popular a figure as you will find in Hollywood. He is immensely professional, seemingly without ego and regularly produces quality work as both actor and director. Mystic River is considered amongst his best work. Really, only Unforgiven stands higher in his career. He is a very strong contender for the award.
Peter Jackson is of course the favorite. The prevailing wisdom is that the monstrous box office of his Lord of the Rings trilogy, coupled with critical acclaim will be impossible to ignore. He failed to win this award for Fellowship of the Ring, which led most to believe that voters were waiting for the finish of the trilogy to reward him. Return of the King is the strongest of the three films and has been the best reviewed as well. Jackson's work on this trilogy is astounding. It is probably the most ambitious film project ever undertaken and he pulled it off with flair. It may not be fair to reward him for three movies but when you consider that the films were shot all at once, it actually makes sense. Jackson wins this one easily.
Best Picture
Seabiscuit is a shameless crowd pleaser, just like the actual horse. An underdog turned champion is an irresistible story. It was a strong enough picture to be remembered at nomination time despite hitting theaters in the summer. In another year, it might win. But not this year, not with this field of horses.
Master and Commander had the second highest number of nominations and I don't believe I've predicted even one win for it. Small wonder I'm not picking it for best picture.
Lost in Translation is a great little film. It's the little part that will keep it from a win. As good as it is, it just doesn't have the big impact of the next two films.
Mystic River was an actor's delight. Strong performances across the board make it stand out in the big categories. The superstar director adds even more weight. Unfortunately for it, an 800 pound gorilla is blocking its path to the award.
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King will win in a landslide. It has steadily marched through awards shows big and small, collecting wins left and right. It will likely be the second highest grossing film of all time. It has the most nominations. It's time has come.
So that's it folks. As I do every year, I'll be hosting a live discussion during the actual ceremony if you feel like talking to some other movie geeks. See you there.
- John Shea
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