Time to pick the Oscars.
Do you ever have one of those years where you just can't seem to get in gear? I swear everything I do this year late. Last year I had detailed breakdown of Oscar predictions spreading over something like ten pages. This year, the awards are in a couple days and I haven't written a thing. And have I at least been working hard in the shadows, preparing some devastatingly accurate analysis? Hell no. Until two minutes ago I was reading old Hunter S. Thompson articles. I can't say as I was terribly familiar with him until pretty recently, which is miserable timing on my part. Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas is a very rare movie in that I honestly can't tell you if I like it or not. But I would watch it again without hesitation which must mean something. The point is, I'm procrastinating. Why? There just isn't a lot of sizzle to the Oscars this year. Sure lots of really good movies are being honored but what's lacking is debate. The Oscars are just full of safe choices this year. Very little outrageous to get worked up over. I get a bit miffed at Paul Giamatti getting screwed out of a nomination but that's about it. I'd love to see Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind take the spot of either Ray or Finding Neverland for best picture, but it's much too weird to be considered seriously by the stodgy Academy. So let's get to my predictions, keeping in mind what I want more than anything from the actual awards this year is some major league upsets. And to help you follow along, I'll give you my prediction, my preference and who would make the biggest upset. Just to be different.
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Prediction: Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
My Choice: Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Big Upset: Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
The obvious favorite here is Jamie Foxx. Which is why this category is ripe for upset. He's been the favorite since about September. If you've seen the movie you know he does a dead on impersonation of Ray Charles. But that's also a weakness as the Academy tends to skip impersonations. They seem to prefer more original characters. Add one highly respected Clint Eastwood to the mix, giving what many call his best ever performance and you have Mr. Foxx in trouble. Particularly when you consider that he is nominated for supporting actor as well, and thus could draw votes away from himself. Most people are picking Foxx but my hunches are screaming Clint. The big upset would be Johnny Depp because Finding Neverland is a trifle that really doesn't belong in this group. That's not a slam on Johnny, just his movie. In a different year, Don Cheadle would richly deserve a win for his performance. He just has lousy timing.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Prediction: Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
My Choice: Jamie Foxx - Collateral
Big Upset: Alan Alda - The Aviator
Morgan Freeman is one hell of an actor and does a bang up job in Baby. Like Clint, the industry just loves him to death. This is a pretty easy pick. My choice is Mr. Foxx, who really should be considered the lead of Collateral. Alan Alda would be a shock to the system. Most didn't even think he'd get nominated. Me I love watching Hawkeye being a slimy sadistic schemer. He should try it again. Clive Owen gets some much needed attention with his nomination but folks only respect Closer, they don't actually like it. And what can you say about Thomas Haden Church? He's great but I have a sinking feeling that screenplay is the only love Sideways is getting.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Prediction: Hillary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
My Choice: Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Big Upset: Catalina Sandino Moreno - Maria Full of Grace
Lots of media outlets are making a big deal of rematch between Swank and Annette Bening from the '99 Oscars. The truth is, they have space to fill and that's why they make a big deal out of it. Bening has zero chance of winning. Swank will run screaming away with this one. It's her best work to date and she has an Oscar for her previous best in Boys Don't Cry so there's no reason to think she won't win again. My very strong choice would be Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine. I haven't been so charmed by an actress since Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman, and if you ask folks who know me you'll find that's no idle comment. Sadly, the Academy will be too freaked out by the blue hair to give her a much deserved statue. Bastards. The critics love Imelda Staunton to death but they don't vote, so forget her chances. The big upset would be Catalina Sandino Moreno. Close your eyes and tell me her name. Can't do it can you? That's why it's an upset choice. Plus, this was an amazingly weak year for lead roles for women. They may have tapped Moreno simply because they ran out of ideas for women to nominate and needed a fifth.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Prediction: Cate Blanchett - The AViator
My Choice: Laura Linney - Kinsey
Big Upset: Natalie Portman - Closer
Cate Blanchett's performance in The Aviator is so bold and brassy that she cannot be ignored. She will win. Many consider Virginia Madsen a strong candidate because of the great pinot discussion in Sideways. It's a great scene but I just can't see the Academy pulling the trigger on this one. Call it a lack of faith in their taste. Me, I'm crazy for Laura Linney in Kinsey. They made her look as plain as possible and it's probably the sexiest damn thing she's ever done. Great stuff. Sophie Okonedo was a surprising nomination, although deserved. That's probably her reward right there. Natalie Portman was a shock in Closer which makes it a great pick as a nomination but the old folks in the Academy will probably feel too dirty to pick the sweet innocent looking kid with her nearly naked ass in the camera. There's a clip you won't be seeing on the awards show.
Best animated feature film of the year
Prediction: The Incredibles
My Choice: The Incredibles
Big Upset: Shark Tale
DreamWorks' Shrek walked off with the very first Oscar in this category, nipping Pixar's excellent Monsters, Inc. As a side note, my two year old son won't watch Shrek but will watch Monsters, Inc. incessantly. Anyway, in the rematch, Pixar will win in a landslide. Shrek 2 is a fun movie but lacks the newness of the first movie and doesn't hold a candle to the sharply written Incredibles. Shark Tale is a bit of a joke to be nominated, which means a win for it would probably launch a major scandal. If that doesn't liven up the show, nothing will.
Achievement in art direction
Prediction: The Aviator
My Choice: The Aviator
Big Upset: A Very Long Engagement
It's in these technical awards that The Aviator will shine. For art direction, the time and scope of the film works in its advantage, making the work that much more impressive. I dug the look of Lemony Snicket, but it's so offbeat I can't imagine it winning. A Very Long Engagement gets the upset pick because I doubt enough Academy members have seen it to pick it for anything.
Achievement in cinematography
Prediction: The Aviator
My Choice: House of Flying Daggers
Big Upset: A Very Long Engagement
Again, The Aviator will clean up in the technical awards for the most part. I really hope I'm wrong though because House of Flying Daggers is drop dead gorgeous and unlike anything else in the year. Phantom of the Opera? Did anyone actually go see it? The Passion is a good looking movie. It's really rare to see splatter gore filmed so lovingly. Probably not for everyone though. And once again, A Very Long Engagement to upset, see above for details.
Achievement in costume design
Prediction: The Aviator
My Choice: The Aviator
Big Upset: Troy
Sounding much like a broken record, you kids should think of a skipping CD, I'm calling it for The Aviator once again. You know why. Don't make me keep typing it. Troy is my upset pick simply because I have trouble imagining it as an Oscar winning film. The other three pictures (Ray, Finding Neverland, Lemony Snicket) just aren't coming much to mind when it comes to clothes.
Achievement in directing
Prediction: Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
My Choice: Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Big Upset: Martin Scorsese - The Aviator
I grabbed this list straight off the Oscar website and started typing over it. Why the hell is this category way down here? It's ridiculous that a director as gifted and respected as Martin Scorsese can't get an Oscar. Hell, the trends seem to bend simply to avoid him personally. Generally speaking the movie with the most nominations wins best picture, which tends to carry best director with it. Most of the exceptions to this rule are for Scorsese. This year is no different. Million Dollar Baby will be a juggernaut. It actually is the better film so I'm not really upset about this. It's just cruel to Marty. So cruel in fact that I'm picking him as the biggest upset. Alexander Payne's practically a kid yet, he'll have plenty of other chances. Mike Leigh's Vera Drake doesn't have a best picture nomination, pretty much ruling him out. Taylor Hackford is the recipient of more back-handed compliments than you will ever see in this category. That's probably not a good sign for him.
Best documentary feature
Prediction: Born into Brothels
My Choice: Super Size Me
Big Upset: Tupac: Resurrection
I've seen only two of these, Super Size Me and Tupac: Resurrection. Super Size Me is the box office champ of the nominees and is just plain fun, as well as getting credit for knocking it's titular phrase out of the McDonald's menu. That should make it a lock but in this category it almost never works that way. I know nothing about Camel and Faith so I'm not picking them for anything. Tupac would make a great upset just because I can't see the Academy honoring the late rapper in that way, even if it is a good doc. That leaves Born into Brothels as the winner.
Best documentary short subject
Prediction: ?
My Choice: ?
Big Upset: ?
I've seen none of them and heard even less. Something really needs to be done to make these movies more accessible. I'm passing on this category out of total ignorance.
Achievement in film editing
Prediction: Thelma Schoonmaker - The Aviator
My Choice: Thelma Schoonmaker - The Aviator
Big Upset: ?
I'm skipping upset on this one because each is a well edited piece and I really can't see anyone getting bent out of shape over any of them winning. That said, Thelma Schoonmaker is as close to a legend as editors go so she's my pick and prediction. Plus I think I mentioned something about technical awards.
Best foreign language film of the year
Prediction: The Sea Inside
My Choice: Downfall
Big Upset: Downfall
The Sea Inside is the best known of these nominees (As It Is In Heaven, The Chorus, Downfall and Yesterday being the others) and so it seems the likely winner. I'm spoiling for an upset at this point so my personal choice and upset choice are both Downfall. It's about the last hours of Hitler's life. That's all you need to know about that.
Achievement in makeup
Prediction: The Passion of the Christ
My Choice: The Passion of the Christ
Big Upset: The Sea Inside
The one over riding thought I had while watching The Passion (apart from the frequent "Who the hell is that guy?") was, this movie has some great makeup work. Seriously. Go check out all the year's best horror flicks and you will not find better done prosthetic gore than The Passion. It beats the hell out of some noses and bald wigs in Lemony Snicket. The Sea Inside is the upset winner because I honestly can't think of what makeup was even needed for it.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
Prediction: John Williams - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
My Choice: Thomas Newman - Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Big Upset: James Newton Howard - The Village
John Williams collects Oscars for musical scores like most people buy cups of coffee. He'll grab another most likely. My personal choice is Newman's work for Lemony Snicket. I sat through all the credits just because I dug the tunes. The upset pick is The Village, because I don't believe enough people stayed awake during it to remember the score. I can't for the life of me remember so much as a note from Finding Neverland or The Passion.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
Prediction: "Accidently In Love" - Shrek 2
My Choice: ?
Big Upset: ?
I picked "Accidently in Love" by closing my eyes and stabbing a finger at the screen. I hate this category, a shameless plug for musicians hired mostly to sell records, whose song plays over the credits most of the time, thus having little to do with the actual movie. The music in question is usually far from my own tastes which makes evaluation tricky.
Best motion picture of the year
Prediction: Million Dollar Baby
My Choice: Million Dollar Baby
Big Upset: Sideways
It's this movie's year. Nuff said. It was my personal pick for best movie of the year, narrowly ahead of Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, which stupidly isn't even nominated. It has all the buzz. There's little reason to think otherwise. In another year, The Aviator would win handily. But it isn't another year. My upset choice was almost The Aviator, simply because of Scorsese's well covered awards failures. But that seemed like kicking a guy while he was down so I picked Sideways, a critics' darling that didn't hit as big with the Academy.
Best animated short film
Prediction: Gopher Broke
My Choice: ?
Big Upset: ?
I like the pun in Gopher Broke. Beyond that I have no knowledge or insight to this group.
Best live action short film
Prediction: ?
My Choice: ?
Big Upset: ?
Not even a good pun to work with here.
Achievement in sound editing
Prediction: Spider-Man 2
My Choice: Spider-Man 2
Big Upset: The Polar Express
When I said repeatedly that The Aviator would dominate the technical awards, I meant the ones it was actually nominated for, which leaves the way open for Spider-Man 2, which would have forced me to rewrite the bit about The Aviator had they both been nominated here.
Achievement in sound mixing
Prediction: The Aviator
My Choice: Ray
Big Upset: Ray
Now we're back to my Aviator mantra. Myself I'd pick Ray because the heavy musical element must have been a major challenge. More importantly, with all of Ray Charles' music the movie is a feast for the ears, totally unlike the others (The Incredibles, The Polar Express, Spider-Man 2) which rely on sound effects. That sounds like going against the grain to me, thus the upset pick.
Achievement in visual effects
Prediction: Spider-Man 2
My Choice: Spider-Man 2
Big Upset: I, Robot
Slam dunk for Spidey. This movie just rocks in terms of effects. I, Robot makes a nice upset pick because nobody should be given an award for making Will Smith seem boring.
Adapted screenplay
Prediction: Paul Haggis - Million Dollar Baby
My Choice: Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor - Sideways
Big Upset: David Magee - Finding Neverland
The script for Sideways is clearly the standout in this group, which is why the award will go to Million Dollar Baby as the voters stampede lemming-like towards the favorite movie. The script awards almost never go to my pick, resulting in a bit of nasty bitterness, which explains the next comment. The upset pick goes to Finding Neverland because I can't see it winning anything. Next year's Oscars will be fun. Without the Weinsteins running Miramax, we can stop the handing of ridiculous numbers of nominations to clearly inferior films just because Harvey punched all the right buttons. Instead they'll go to whatever he names his new company.
Original screenplay
Prediction: Charlie Kaufman & Michel Gondry & Pierre Bismuth - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
My Choice: Charlie Kaufman & Michel Gondry & Pierre Bismuth - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Big Upset: Charlie Kaufman & Michel Gondry & Pierre Bismuth - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
In a rare moment where I see my own tastes, the Academy's tastes and "no fucking way did that just happen" logic, I call this award for Eternal Sunshine.
So that's it kids. Those are my guesses. Tune in Sunday night 8PM EST on ABC to find out if I'm right. For even more fun, be here for my live chat during the awards, where you can see me getting pissed off, drunk or asleep depending on how right I turn out to be.
- John Shea
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