As usual, my predictions were more accurate than not but nowhere near perfect. My biggest mistakes were in believing there to be far more support behind A History of Violence then actually existed, and greatly under estimating the support for Munich and Good Night, and Good Luck. Let's take a look at the details.
Best ActorPhilip Seymour Hoffman in “Capote”
Terrence Howard in “Hustle & Flow”
Heath Ledger in “Brokeback Mountain”
Joaquin Phoenix in “Walk the Line”
David Strathairn in “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
This category I guessed all five correctly. No surprises to comment on. Philip Seymour Hoffman would appear to be the front runner right now but I suspect he needs to watch over his shoulder for a hard charging Terrence Howard. This is often a category that can be won by the actor most willing to campaign for it. That's not the whole battle obviously but it matters. Howard is working this one hard. Hoffman needs to look out for him. Heath Ledger should be worth serious consideration but the subtlety of his performance may hurt him when compared to the flashier roles for Hoffman and Howard.
Best Actress
Judi Dench in “Mrs. Henderson Presents”
Felicity Huffman in “Transamerica”
Keira Knightley in “Pride & Prejudice”
Charlize Theron in “North Country”
Reese Witherspoon in “Walk the Line”
I missed on Keira Knightley for this category. I bet on the Academy's long running respect for Joan Allen. Knightley is a young up and comer who is obviously more appreciated than I thought. The consensus favorite to win this is Reese Witherspoon. Felicity Huffman is the dark horse in the bunch but don't put much faith in her staging an upset here.
Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney in “Syriana”
Matt Dillon in “Crash”
Paul Giamatti in “Cinderella Man”
Jake Gyllenhaal in “Brokeback Mountain”
William Hurt in “A History of Violence”
Here I missed on Jake Gyllenhaal and Matt Dillon. I considered Dillon seriously but went with Terrence Howard, also for Crash. No partial credit though. Gyllenhaal surprised me though. Heath Ledger overshadowed him so much during Brokeback Mountain that I assumed he wouldn't get anything. I would have loved to see Mickey Rourke nominated for Sin City, but that wasn't going to happen. This is a pretty wide open category, with no prohibitive favorite at this point. My guess is comes down to Clooney and Giamatti. The Academy often gives an award the year after a great, but snubbed performance as a sort of apology. That would seem to give the edge to Giamatti, who was bizarrely not even nominated last year for Sideways.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in “Junebug”
Catherine Keener in “Capote”
Frances McDormand in “North Country”
Rachel Weisz in “The Constant Gardener”
Michelle Williams in “Brokeback Mountain”
I missed Frances McDormand here, going with Maria Bello for A History of Violence. This may be the first time that a nomination for McDormand doesn't make me happy. Bello was magnificent and deserved the attention. Rachel Weisz is the likely winner but Catherine Keener could steal it away.
Best Animated Feature
“Howl’s Moving Castle”
“Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride”
“Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit”
Here is a category to get seriously happy about. Not only were my guesses all correct, but the Academy actually nominated the most deserving films and not the ones with the biggest box office. Earlier years for this category featured some questionable selections. Wallace & Gromit is probably the favorite here.
Best Director
Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”
Bennett Miller “Capote”
Paul Haggis “Crash”
George Clooney “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Steven Spielberg “Munich”
I guessed wrong twice here, with Bennet Miller and Spielberg grabbing (for me) unexpected nominations. Picking this one will be a nightmare. Brokeback Mountain is the leader in nominations, which would seem to make Ang Lee the favorite. But the Academy often likes to reward actors who take a shot at directing. Actors make up the largest segment of the Academy, so they tend to favor their own. That would seem to favor George Clooney, who picks up a first ever triple nomination for two films (Supporting Actor for Syriana, Original Screenplay and Direction for Good Night, and Good Luck). Spielberg is of course the superstar of directors, so he can never be counted out. Bennett Miller and Paul Haggis are rookie feature film directors, so for them the nomination is the reward.
Best Picture
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich
More interesting than who will win is how the world will react to what wins. A win for Brokeback Mountain is sure to set off conservatives, giving them what they will no doubt believe is proof of Hollywood's “gay agenda.” On the shit hitting the fan meter, this one ranks very high. Capote on the other hand, likely won't create anywhere near the same stir, even though it too is about a gay man. This is a lot more subversive, being about a real gay man who went to the heartland of America and somehow got ordinary people to not only talk to him but practically pour out their hearts as well. I guess that isn't quite as disturbing as the idea of a gay cowboy. We'll see. Good Night, and Good Luck is a history lesson, one that points to the adage that those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it. While on the surface it's a retelling of a brief but explosive moment in politics and media coverage, at the movie's heart is a blistering criticism of the current state of journalism and the control of it by corporations with ulterior motives. Munich is also about a real point in history, although a fictionalized account. The subtext though is about asking questions on the moral imperatives of answering violence with more violence. A win for this movie will only be slightly less inflammatory than Brokeback Mountain for the countless pundits on the airwaves. Crash is probably the least likely of the bunch to cause a stir by winning. But it may have the best chance to win. This is very much a movie about Los Angeles, the city the great majority of Academy members call home. If that depiction of their city resonates with voters, it will likely take the statue home.
Achievement in art direction
“Good Night, and Good Luck.”- Jim Bissell and Jan Pascale
“Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire” - Stuart Craig and Stephenie McMillan
“King Kong” - Grant Major, Dan Hennah and Simon Bright
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - John Myhre and Gretchen Rau
“Pride & Prejudice” - Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
Memoirs of a Geisha picked up an astounding six nominations but they all came in technical categories. The movie was largely considered a bust by critics so don't be surprised if it gets shut out. Kong is the likely winner here.
Achievement in cinematography
“Batman Begins” - Wally Pfister
“Brokeback Mountain” - Rodrigo Prieto
“Good Night, and Good Luck.” - Robert Elswit
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - Dion Beebe
“The New World” - Emmanuel Lubezki
Comic book fans should be particularly pleased with the nomination for Batman Begins. It indicates the Academy is starting to take comic book movies seriously. Rodrigo Prieto is to the best of my knowledge the only one of this quintet to actually appear in the movie they shot. He plays the Mexican who delivers supplies to the camp on the mountain early in Brokeback Mountain. My hunch is that he will win this one, although Pfister probably has a strong chance as well.
Achievement in costume design
“Charlie and the Chocolate Factory” - Gabriella Pescucci
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - Colleen Atwood
“Mrs. Henderson Presents” - Sandy Powell
“Pride & Prejudice” - Jacqueline Durran
“Walk the Line” - Arianne Phillips
Unsurprisingly, most of these movies are period pieces. My early guess is that Jacqueline Durran will win, but that's pretty much a wild guess. Really I can see any one of them winning.
Best documentary feature
“Darwin’s Nightmare”
“Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room”
“March of the Penguins”
“Murderball”
“Street Fight”
I correctly guessed four of these movies, missing on Street Fight. But I still want an explanation on why Grizzly Man and The Aristocrats weren't even eligible for a nomination. March of the Penguins is the box office champ of this bunch by a wide margin. That's not necessarily a good thing in this category though. Murderball, the story of quadriplegic rugby players, is my favorite of this bunch. Usually the safe way to pick this category is to go with the Holocaust doc. But there isn't one, so the backup rule is go for the one about people overcoming great odds. That would be Murderball.
Best documentary short subject
“The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club”
“God Sleeps in Rwanda”
“The Mushroom Club”
“A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin”
Not a clue. I haven't seen any of these. I am willing to predict that the nominees will be seated in the back of the theater though.
Achievement in film editing
“Cinderella Man” - Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
“The Constant Gardener”- Claire Simpson
“Crash” - Hughes Winborne
“Munich” - Michael Kahn
“Walk the Line” - Michael McCusker
Off hand, I'm guessing Hughes Winborne will win for Crash. The multiple, intersecting storylines would seem to crank up the difficulty level considerably and the movie handles it with ease.
Best foreign language film of the year
“Don’t Tell” - Italy
“Joyeux Noël” - France
“Paradise Now” - Palestine
“Sophie Scholl - The Final Days” - Germany
“Tsotsi” - South Africa
Of this bunch, I have only seen Paradise Now. I'm greatly disappointed that Cache wasn't nominated but due to the oddities of the rules, it wasn't eligible (an Austrian film, it was performed in French, thus disqualifying it because Austria's main language is not French). Call me crazy, but the primary consideration should be quality, not picky rules.
Achievement in makeup
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” - Howard Berger and Tami Lane
“Cinderella Man” - David Leroy Anderson and Lance Anderson
“Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith” - Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley
The Academy seems to hate George Lucas, so give the award to Narnia.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
“Brokeback Mountain” - Gustavo Santaolalla
“The Constant Gardener” - Alberto Iglesias
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - John Williams
“Munich” - John Williams
“Pride & Prejudice” - Dario Marianelli
A double nomination for John Williams. Even for him, that's amazing.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
“In the Deep” from “Crash” - Music by Kathleen “Bird” York and Michael Becker, Lyric by Kathleen “Bird” York
“It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” from“Hustle & Flow” - Music and Lyric by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard
“Travelin’ Thru” from “Transamerica” - Music and Lyric by Dolly Parton
The thought of watching “It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp” being performed on the Oscars warms my twisted little heart. I spent several minutes giggling at this nomination. It will positively make my year if it actually wins.
Best animated short film
“Badgered”
“The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation”
“The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello”
“9”
“One Man Band”
I don't believe I've seen any of these. Pixar made One Man Band, so that might mean something.
Best live action short film
“Ausreisser (The Runaway)”
“Cashback”
“The Last Farm”
“Our Time Is Up”
“Six Shooter”
Sadly, again I haven't seen any of them.
Achievement in sound editing
“King Kong” - Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn“Memoirs of a Geisha” - Wylie Stateman
“War of the Worlds” - Richard King
Kong most likely.
Achievement in sound mixing
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” - Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic and Tony Johnson
“King Kong” - Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek
“Memoirs of a Geisha” - Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline and John Pritchett
“Walk the Line” - Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland
“War of the Worlds” - Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins
Kong again.
Achievement in visual effects
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” - Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar
“King Kong” - Joe Letteri, Brian Van’t Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor
“War of the Worlds” - Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randy Dutra and Daniel Sudick
Here is the proof that the Academy hates George Lucas. This should have been a big face off between Kong and Revenge of the Sith. Personally I thought the effects in Narnia were pretty uneven. The beavers looked amazing but the lion looked fake. Hardly the pinnacle of the art. Kong will win this one easily with its only serious competitor not even in the fight.
Adapted screenplay
“Brokeback Mountain” - Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana
“Capote” - Dan Futterman
“The Constant Gardener” - Jeffrey Caine
“A History of Violence” - Josh Olson
“Munich” - Tony Kushner and Eric Roth
Brokeback Mountain should be the easy winner here. The effortless way in which it blows right past the gay element and quickly settles into simply being a love story is pretty damn impressive.
Original screenplay
“Crash” - Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco
"Good Night, and Good Luck.” - George Clooney & Grant Heslov
“Match Point” - Woody Allen
“The Squid and the Whale” - Noah Baumbach
“Syriana” - Stephen Gaghan
Paul Haggis is about the hottest writer in the business right now. Last year, Million Dollar Baby steamrolled the competition and this year Crash is a heavy hitter on the awards circuit. The script for Crash does a great job of bringing dozens of characters into clear focus and giving every single one of them more than one facet. It's a remarkable juggling act that should bring home the gold.
