Best Actor
This is a two man race. Frank Langella, Richard Jenkins and Brad Pitt were all excellent but they have exactly zero chance this year. Sorry fellas. This comes down to Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Both are magnificent. Both have something extra backing them up. Penn's role rides a wave of anger over the passage of California's Proposition 8. Rourke has a role that feeds perfectly into his own resurrection as a star. So what do the voters like better? Come back story or politics? My tastes tell me Rourke should win. My instincts say Penn. So I will pick Penn to win because my tastes are scientifically proven not to match those of Academy voters.
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger. It's a brilliant iconic performance. No competition here at all. Expect a seriously weepy moment when his family takes the stage to collect the late actor's award.
Best Actress
This is, in my version of the world, a wide open field. I don't sense any heat on Angelina Jolie for this award, but the other four all have a legitimate shot. Anne Hathaway probably won't win because she's young and presumably will have plenty more chances. Meryl Streep is of course, a legend, and always a threat. But she rarely wins. Kate Winslet is essentially a younger Streep. Nominated a lot, never wins. Melissa Leo isn't particularly well known. On taste alone, I'd make this a battle between Streep and Leo. My instincts say it's a battle between Streep and Winslet. So let's split the difference and call it for Streep.
Best Supporting Actress
This is another wide open field. I always believe that this is the toughest category to call. The winner is often a surprise. But I'm going to simplify it this year. My tastes and instincts say the same thing. Viola Davis. If you've seen Doubt you know that her brief appearance is stunning. I find it hard to believe that if you saw it, you wouldn't give her the award.
Best Animated Feature
After Heath Ledger, this is the easiest pick of them all. WALL-E is the runaway winner. It should have been nominated for best picture as well.
Art Direction
Ugh. I hate calling this category. I admit being baffled at what voters look for the most here. Let's try to see why one would stand out in this group. Changeling, Benjamin Button, The Duchess and Revolutionary Road are all period pieces. The Dark Knight is a comic book come alive. Which one of these things is not like the other? The Dark Knight.
Cinematography
This probably comes down to The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire. Wally Pfister is on his second nomination for a Batman movie and is someone you will someday speak of in hushed tones of awe. But Anthony Dod Mantle's work is eye popping color and constant motion and energy, things vital to the story. Slumdog wins.
Costume Design
Again, a bunch of period pieces. The one that stands out is Benjamin Button, which has to span decades and thus continually shifting styles.
Best Director
This is a surprisingly easy call. Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire.
Best Documentary Feature
I've only seen one of these docs, Werner Herzog's Encounters at the End of the World. I liked it so much I spent days telling everyone who crossed my path how great it was and blathering on about all the little details. So based on that deep examination of the field, I'll pick Encounters at the End of the World.
Best Documentary Short
No idea. I didn't see even one of them. So at random I will pick The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306. I like the idea of a short with a title that takes longer to read than it takes to watch the movie.
Film Editing
This is always hard to call because we don't know what material the editor had to work with and that makes it hard to judge how well the work was done. But I'm going to go for Chris Dickens for Slumdog Millionaire. For one thing, he edited Shaun of the Dead, one of my favorite films of the last decade. But more relevantly, he had to deal with constant shifts in tone and style and make it all flow smoothly together while dealing with Danny Boyle's high energy frenetic style.
Foreign Language Film
I've seen two of these movies, The Class and Waltz With Bashir. I actually placed Bashir on my top ten list for the year, so that's my pick to win.
Makeup
Hellboy 2 had some really magnificent prosthetic work in it. But Benjamin Button convincingly took Brad Pitt through all ages between teenager and 80 year old man. That actually counts as a landmark advance. Button wins.
Original Score
Let's take a quick poll of the author. Which of the following scores did you purchase with your own money to listen to when you felt like it? Benjamin Button, Defiance, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire or WALL-E? That would be Slumdog Millionaire John. Right you are, John.
Original Score
I prefer the winner of this category to be a song integral to the film and not just something played during the end credits. In this group that is the song "O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire. As it turns out, that matches my taste as well.
Best Animated Short
Sadly, I've seen none of these. I hope to change that before the big show, so I may change this pick. But for now, I'm calling it for Oktapodi. I think the little photo of it that accompanies the nomination page is pretty cool.
Best Live Action Short
Same story as the previous category. I'm picking The Pig because I like the title. And because my neighbor has a pet pig.
Sound Editing/Sound Mixing
I'm calling both of these awards for WALL-E. It's brilliant work and unlike the other films, none of the sound could be acquired during the shoot. Being animated, there was no shoot. And the sound on this film is huge in telling the story, particularly the beginning which is entirely without dialog.
Visual Effects
Midway through the year I thought this was a slam dunk for Iron Man. The suit was so beautifully designed and rendered that it seemed like a gimme. Then I saw Benjamin Button. The human face was always the hardest thing for computer animation and that movie nailed it for the first time. That's a landmark advance in special effects and so the award has to go to Benjamin Button.
Adapted Screenplay
More than a few people think Eric Roth's screenplay for Benjamin Button is really similar to his screenplay for Forest Gump for which Roth has already been awarded. So cross him off the list, fair or not. The Reader, quite frankly, feels like one of Harvey Weinstein's famous marketing coups, in that it came from nowhere to pick up a bunch of award nominations. It's not a bad film, but it sure feels outclassed in this group to me. I like Frost/Nixon quite a lot but it doesn't feel like it has any buzz. That leaves Doubt and Slumdog Millionaire. I love both movies and think both scripts are brilliant. My tastes say Doubt but my instincts say Slumdog Millionaire. We'll go with my instincts.
Original Screenplay
In my review of Frozen River, I admitted to being a homer and rooting heavily for Courtney Hunt, who lives in the same area I do. What are her actual chances of winning? Not great I'm afraid. My instincts tell me that Milk and WALL-E are the heavy favorites. I prefer WALL-E but have a feeling that Milk may get the win.
Best Picture
Finally, the big award. And really, I don't consider this one that hard to pick. Slumdog Millionaire is the heavy favorite and I see no reason to pick against it. It doesn't hurt that it's my favorite of the best picture nominees either.
By all means, take a stab at your own predictions. You can use the comments feature below or head over to the forums. And if you plan on watching the Oscars, stop by for our live chat during the show. It's usually a lot of fun.
