TNMC

Sound Editing/Sound Mixing

I'm calling both of these awards for WALL-E. It's brilliant work and unlike the other films, none of the sound could be acquired during the shoot. Being animated, there was no shoot. And the sound on this film is huge in telling the story, particularly the beginning which is entirely without dialog.

Visual Effects

Midway through the year I thought this was a slam dunk for Iron Man. The suit was so beautifully designed and rendered that it seemed like a gimme. Then I saw Benjamin Button. The human face was always the hardest thing for computer animation and that movie nailed it for the first time. That's a landmark advance in special effects and so the award has to go to Benjamin Button.

Adapted Screenplay

More than a few people think Eric Roth's screenplay for Benjamin Button is really similar to his screenplay for Forest Gump for which Roth has already been awarded. So cross him off the list, fair or not. The Reader, quite frankly, feels like one of Harvey Weinstein's famous marketing coups, in that it came from nowhere to pick up a bunch of award nominations. It's not a bad film, but it sure feels outclassed in this group to me. I like Frost/Nixon quite a lot but it doesn't feel like it has any buzz. That leaves Doubt and Slumdog Millionaire. I love both movies and think both scripts are brilliant. My tastes say Doubt but my instincts say Slumdog Millionaire. We'll go with my instincts.

Original Screenplay

In my review of Frozen River, I admitted to being a homer and rooting heavily for Courtney Hunt, who lives in the same area I do. What are her actual chances of winning? Not great I'm afraid. My instincts tell me that Milk and WALL-E are the heavy favorites. I prefer WALL-E but have a feeling that Milk may get the win.

Best Picture

Finally, the big award. And really, I don't consider this one that hard to pick. Slumdog Millionaire is the heavy favorite and I see no reason to pick against it. It doesn't hurt that it's my favorite of the best picture nominees either.

By all means, take a stab at your own predictions. You can use the comments feature below or head over to the forums. And if you plan on watching the Oscars, stop by for our live chat during the show. It's usually a lot of fun.