Hollyfeld, here. We're back with our annual TNMC Oscar Nominee Predictions. Last year our editor-in-chief, John "Batman" Shea, and I tried our luck at predicting who the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences would select as the top five candidates in the top categories, and did fairly well. A brief review of our picks shows us being right for three or four nominees per category. However, 2000, though hardly full of sure things, was still more cut and dry than 2001, in which there are numerous films of comparable acclaim all vying for the same awards. So without further ado (sorry, one more: ado), the Batman and The Closet Monster (bonus points for anyone who got that) are taking their crack at predicting the most prestigious nominees of the year:
Best Picture, Hollyfeld's Picks:
A Beautiful Mind
Black Hawk Down
In the Bedroom
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Moulin Rouge!
Judging from my own opinions and other awards shows, the nominees for Best Picture are arguably the easiest to pick of the year. In the Bedroom and A Beautiful Mind are both sure things, both being Academy pleasing stories of well-performed characters dealing with adversity, and The Lord of the Rings and Moulin Rouge, though less confident choices, have both picked up a lot of heat this awards season. Black Hawk Down has been almost universally ignored by other awards shows, but the Oscars usually feature a couple of wild cards - remember the Pollock's coup from last year, or the Cider House campaign? When one considers the box office popularity (and, of course, genuine quality) of Ridley Scott's latest film, its stock improves greatly. Other potentials include Gosford Park, Memento, Monster's Ball and Mulholland Drive, but these great films may prove a little too intellectual for the main nominating committee.
Best Picture, John's Picks:
Black Hawk Down
A Beautiful Mind
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
In the Bedroom
The Shipping News
The first four picks on this list are fairly easy. A Beautiful Mind did quite well at the Golden Globes and has well respected people from top to bottom. Fellowship of the Ring is a big quasi-historical epic and Hollywood just loves those kind of movies for Best Picture. In the Bedroom has perhaps the greatest buzz going for it. Black Hawk Down is on countless top ten lists and Ridley Scott's Gladiator got everything but Best Director last year, so he's on a roll. The last one is a wildcard and it could go to Memento just because it's been the year's sleeper hit. Moulin Rouge is the other option for the wildcard spot but its lackluster box office probably costs it. The choice of The Shipping News is more political. Lasse Halstrom/Miramax films have an odd way of creeping into this category.
Best Director, Hollyfeld's Picks:
Robert Altman, Gosford Park
David Lynch, Mulholland Drive
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Todd Field, In the Bedroom
Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind
Some say that the Best Director nominees should go hand in hand with those for Best Picture. Personally, I disagree, and so it would seem does the Academy, since rare is the year in which they are perfectly matched up - usually there is at least one, and occasionally two, discrepancies. Given the number of less-than-crowd-pleasing films to feature great direction, like Gosford Park and Mulholland Drive, this year, I believe that there will be room made for Lynch and Altman. The rest will reflect the Best Picture nominees, with Jackson and Field, receiving much praise and press time lately, almost certainly earning nominations, and Ron Howard bringing up the rear, barely edging out Ridley Scott's brilliant, but deceptively action-oriented, direction for Black Hawk Down. Personally, I hope Scott gets nominated, but I think this will again not be his year, forcing him to sit this award out with the likes of fellow potentials Baz Luhrrman (Moulin Rouge!), Chris Nolan (Memento), Jean-Pierre Jeunet (Amelie), Richard Linklater (Waking Life) and Marc Forster (Monster's Ball).
Best Director, John's Picks:
Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind
Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down
Christopher Nolan, Memento
David Lynch, Mulholland Drive
Peter Jackson, Fellowship of the Ring
This category is really up in the air. Howard and Peter Jackson are probably the closest things to locks. Nolan did a wonderful job with Memento and it did well with audiences, particularly on video. Ridley Scott was nominated last year for Gladiator, an inferior film to Black Hawk Down so he should get in again this year. The last spot is the hardest to pick and I go with Lynch for no particular reason other than a hunch. Baz Luhrmann (Moulin Rouge) and Robert Altman (Gosford Park) could just as easily get a nomination.
Best Actor, Hollyfeld's Picks:
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
Guy Pearce, Memento
Will Smith, Ali
Denzel Washington, Training Day
Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom
Russell Crowe and Wilkinson are, if other awards shows are any indication, dead locks, so I am confident in nominating them. Denzel as well should have little to worry about, since being bad suited him so good, although the Academy does not often reward villainous performances (Anthony Hopkins in The Silence of the Lambs and Ralph Fiennes for Schindler's List being notable exceptions). Will Smith was universally considered a shoe-in for his performance in Ali... but that was before it was released. He will probably receive the nomination for his trouble (though it didn't work for Jim Carrey in Man on the Moon), even though a win seems almost impossible at this stage of the game. The wildcard spot? Guy Pearce in Memento, whose performance was the keystone which held the rest of the film together. He failed to receive a nomination for almost every other major award, but I hold out hope (enough to posit him as a nominee) that he will be one of the surprises this year. Still, he will have to contend with Gene Hackman (The Royal Tenenbaums), Sean Penn (I Am Sam, the kind of sell-out movie the Academy would probably rather have him do), Kevin Spacey (The Shipping News), Billy Bob Thornton (The Man Who Wasn't There and Monster's Ball) and Sir Ian McKellan (Lord of the Rings). Tough competition, proving that, though I make my predictions confidently, this category is really anyone's game. Incidentally, I would like give a shout-out to Tom Cruise and Anthony LaPaglia, whose great performances in Vanilla Sky and Lantana are unfortunately among the longest long-shots this year.
Best Actor, John's Picks:
Gene Hackman, The Royal Tenenbaums
Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind
Denzel Washington, Training Day
Sean Penn, I Am Sam
Tom Wilkinson and Russell Crowe are the guaranteed picks here if the buzz is to be believed. Denzel Washington is an Oscar favorite, even if he doesn't usually win. So give him a nod for Training Day, the first film in a long time to stretch his abilities. Gene Hackman is the sentimental favorite for a nomination. He's a highly respected actor and does a wonderful job with this film. The fact that he's already picked up a Golden Globe for it doesn't hurt either. Finally we come to Sean Penn who has one of those roles that the Academy just eats up. This isn't really my favorite choice, but I think it's likely. I'd rather see Will Smith get a nod for Ali but the Academy tends to ignore biopics (see Man on the Moon). On the extreme fringe, it's possible that Jack Nicholson could pick up a nomination for The Pledge. This of course assumes that voters can remember all the way back to January.
Best Actress, Hollyfeld's Picks:
Halle Berry, Monster's Ball
Nicole Kidman, The Others
Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom
Audrey Toutou, Amelie
Naomi Watts, Mulholland Drive
Best Actress is usually an easier category to predict because, usually, there are fewer impressive leading roles for women than for men. This is unfortunate, but somewhat off-topic. Berry and Spacek are the front-runners, this year, with Nicole Kidman also very likely. Unfortunately, her two great performances this year could cancel each other out (actors, unlike directors, for example, cannot be nominated twice in the same category). I single out her performance in The Others because I, subjectively, believe it to be superior to her role in Moulin Rouge! Only a little less likely is a nomination for Naomi Watts, whose brilliant performance is admittedly slightly hindered by the unusual nature of her project. The wildcard? Audrey Toutou, the unapologetically sweet-faced star of the year's most unapologetically sweet movie, and without whom the movie would have been hopelessly unfocused. She will, however, have to compete with Dame Judi Dench (Iris), Stockard Channing (The Business of Strangers), Thora Birch (Ghost World), Tilda Swinton (The Deep End) and Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge!).
Best Actress, John's Picks:
Halle Berry, Monster's Ball
Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge
Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom
Naomi Watts, Mulholland Drive
Renee Zellwegger, Bridget Jones's Diary
Sissy Spacek and Halle Berry are getting huge praise for their roles so we'll just pencil them in now. Nicole Kidman had twin great roles this year in The Others and Moulin Rouge. One of them is certainly going to get her the nomination. I'll choose Moulin Rouge just for a higher buzz factor. Naomi Watts had a breakthrough performance in Mulholland Drive but she's a shaky choice because of that film's odd nature and limited box office. Renee Zellwegger was simply delightful in Bridget Jones's Diary. She's been a consistently solid performer for several years now and deserves her nomination. Her main weakness will be that the film was released much earlier in the year, which could make it dim in Academy voters' minds. The dark horse is Audrey Tautou who is the heart and soul of Amelie.
Best Original Screenplay, Hollyfeld's Picks:
Milo Addica & Will Rokos, Monster's Ball
Joel & Ethan Coen, The Man Who Wasn't There
Julian Fellowes, Gosford Park
Baz Luhrmann & Craig Pearce, Moulin Rouge!
Christopher Nolan, Memento
Now THIS is a tough category, and although I think Monster's Ball, Memento and Gosford Park are almost certain to be headlining it, nothing is for certain when their competition includes The Royal Tenenbaums, Amelie, Training Day, Mulholland Drive, The Others, Waking Life and even Monsters, Inc - my personal choice for the best screenplay of the year. Still, my remaining slots go to the Coen Brothers, who since Fargo have been Academy favorites (even though they were overlooked The Big Lebowski, arguably their best film), and Moulin Rouge!, whose cleverness (mostly in regards to its music) should finagle its way into a (probably undeserved) nomination.
Best Original Screenplay, John's Picks:
Julian Fellowes, Gosford Park
Christopher Nolan, Memento
Wes Anderson & Owen Wilson, The Royal Tenenbaums
Joel & Ethan Coen, The Man Who Wasn't There
Guillaume Laurant & Jean-Pierre Jeunet, Amelie
Gosford Park should be considered a slam dunk here. Memento is very likely, despite a procedural snub by the WGA. The Royal Tenenbaums is a nice choice for its complexity and large numbers of characters, all nicely rendered. The Man Who Wasn't There likely gets a nomination simply because the Coen brothers always seem to get them, even though this isn't their best work. Finally, I'm picking Amelie because it's such a unique effort. Other possibilities are Monster's Ball, Mulholland Drive and The Others.
Best Adapted Screenplay, Hollyfeld's Picks:
Daniel Clowes & Terry Zwigoff, Ghost World
Ted Elliot & Terry Rosario & Joe Stillman & Roger S.H. Schulman, Shrek
Robert Festinger & Todd Field, In the Bedroom
Akiva Goldsman, A Beautiful Mind
Frances Walsh & Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
A bit clearer cut than the above category is this one, in which there are simply fewer films of quality eligible. Ghost World, A Beautiful Mind, and Lord of the Rings are sure things, and in spite of some recent (minor) controversy at the Writer's Guild, In the Bedroom should be too. The final spot I give to Shrek (although personally I think it would be a mistake), for its sheer cleverness. Other possibilities, however, include The Tailor of Panama, Black Hawk Down (my personal pick for the last spot), The Shipping News and Lantana. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone is a long shot, but worth mentioning just in case.
Best Adapted Screenplay, John's Picks:
Helen Fielding, Andrew Davies & Richard Curtis, Bridget Jones's Diary
Frances Walsh & Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson, Fellowship of the Ring
Akiva Goldsman, A Beautiful Mind
Daniel Clowes & Terry Zwigoff, Ghost World
Ted Elliot & Terry Rosario & Joe Stillman & Roger S.H. Schulman, Shrek
Box office success is well appreciated by the Academy so let's follow the money. Box office champs Shrek and Fellowship of the Ring seem like easy choices. Somewhat less popular though still solid is A Beautiful Mind which is a brilliant script, even more remarkable when you consider it was written by the guy who wrote Batman & Robin. Following that up is Bridget Jones's Diary that isn't getting a lot of attention only because of its early year release date. Despite my earlier comment, screenwriting categories are actually fairly ripe for non-box office winners so lets go with Ghost World to round out the bunch. Dark horse possibilities include The Tailor of Panama, Black Hawk Down and In the Bedroom.
Best Supporting Actor, Hollyfeld's Picks:
Jim Broadbent, Iris
Steve Buscemi, Ghostworld
Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast
Jude Law, A.I.
Sir Ian McKellan, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
This, I confess, is the category about which I have the least confidence in my predictions. With the exception of Steve Buscemi, who (thankfully) has become something of a sure thing, everyone I predict above has strikes against them and other performances of comparable quality with which to compete. Sir Ian McKellan, who probably gave the best performance of the lot, is still in a fantasy movie and could easily be overlooked (or even nominated for Best Actor). Ben Kingsley, though long considered a lock, was in a film released long ago, and a film remembered for nothing other than his performance. Jude Law was the best thing about A.I., but his quirky character (and the film's lackluster response) will probably work against him. Jim Broadbent, I admit freely, is only on my list of nominees because he won the Golden Globe, and is such is likely to be remembered by the Academy. Regardless, Tony Shalhoub (The Man Who Wasn't There), Brian Cox (L.I.E.), Martin Landau (The Majestic), Hayden Christensen (Life as a House), Jon Voight and Jamie Foxx (Ali) have an equal shot at nominee status. This category really is anyone's game.
Best Supporting Actor, John's Picks:
Paul Bettany, A Beautiful Mind
Sir Ian McKellan, Fellowship of the Ring
Billy Bob Thornton, Bandits
Martin Landau, The Majestic
Tony Shalhoub, The Man Who Wasn't There
Like my cohort, I admit that this category is a total free for all. I would be no less surprised to get none of these right as all of them. So let's start with Paul Bettany who was great and might ride the coat tails of A Beautiful Mind to his own nomination. McKellen should be an easy pick because he was the best actor in Fellowship of the Ring, which should be sucking up technical noms like a Hoover. Thornton probably gets shut out of Best Actor for Monsters Ball so this might be his make up award. Martin Landau was easily the best thing about The Majestic and the Academy already loves him. Tony Shalhoub was my favorite part of The Man Who Wasn't There and swiped all his scenes. Other contenders are Steve Buscemi (Ghostworld), Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast) and Jamie Foxx (Ali).
Best Supporting Actress, Hollyfeld's Picks:
Cate Blanchett, Bandits
Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind
Cameron Diaz, Vanilla Sky
Dame Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom
Some say that this is amongst the easiest awards to predict, what with Jennifer Connelly, Dame Maggie Smith and Helen Mirren (Gosford Park) and Marisa Tomei being nominated in almost every awards show, with either Cameron Diaz or Cate Blanchett filling in the remaining spot. I, on the other hand, am playing it a little fast and loose in my predictions. Connelly, Tomei and Smith, I feel, are sure things - and Helen Mirren does have more than a sporting chance to boot. Still, the last time two great performances from one film were up in this category (Diaz and Catherine Keener in Being John Malkovich) the voters opted to honor only one with a nomination, so I select the better of the two roles... in my humble opinion, being Maggie Smith. Diaz's is a performance I stand by - by its nature it would seem that hers is an almost non-existent character, but looking at the film this element is crucial, and she pulls it off with ease. And while I have not seen Bandits, the notion of the talented Cate Blanchett being nominated for a sillier performance than her role in the sappy Charlotte Gray is a thought too pleasant to deny myself (especially since I am banking on the year's other acclaimed comedic performance, Gene Hackman in The Royal Tenenbaums, to be snubbed). Other than Helen Mirren, however, Dame Judi Dench (The Shipping News), Kate Winslet (Iris), Angelica Huston and Gwyneth Paltrow (The Royal Tenenbaums) are all formidable choices.
Best Supporting Actress, John's Picks:
Cameron Diaz, Vanilla Sky
Cate Blanchett, Bandits
Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind
Dame Judi Dench, The Shipping News
Anjelica Huston, The Royal Tenenbaums
This is a fairly easy category, if only for the lack of quality roles for women. Sad but true. Topping my list is Cameron Diaz who has a small role in Vanilla Sky but does it so well it shines far brighter than headliners Penelope Cruz and Tom Cruise in the same film. Cate Blanchett is always great and her appearance in Bandits gave us a chance to see her try some comedy. Jennifer Connelly should be a lock because her role is key to A Beautiful Mind and she is great. It's about time she got the deserved recognition for her talents. Dame Judi Dench is always getting nominations so I'll pick her for this one for The Shipping News, sight unseen. Finally, on a lark I'll go with Anjelica Huston for The Royal Tenenbaums. This could just as easily be Marisa Tomei for In the Bedroom though.
Join us in a few days to examine where we went we went wrong, or, less interestingly, right. To make things more interesting we'll have a bet on this. The loser has to watch and review The English Patient in a future Look Closer... column.
